News & Updates

March 31, 2020

Stuart Fowler

This email to clients updated our earlier information on 21st March on the impacts of coronavirus on our modelling of real spending outcomes for their spending plans. This takes into account the extraordinary scale of governments' intervention in economies, potentially...

September 30, 2016

Stuart Fowler

In today's FT Letters I argue for separating the legal process of Brexit from trade negotiations, because the people we will be negotiating market access with cannot guarantee passage of any agreement reached. 


To the threat from four eastern European memb...

September 12, 2016

Stuart Fowler

Inflation expectations derived from the difference between conventional and inflation-linked gilts do not agree with inflation expectations derived from the yields of each. That shouldn't happen in rational markets.

The yield difference is the true 'crowd' forecast: abo...

September 1, 2016

Stuart Fowler

A deliberate exercise by central banks to distort the normal workings of capital markets, Quantitative Easing (QE) has provided an exceptional opportunity to improve financial outcomes by transferring from final-salary pension schemes to self-invested personal pensions...

August 23, 2016

Stuart Fowler

Three things winning in sport has in common with a successful investment approach:

1. Exploit a natural advantage

2. Train your mind

3. Visualise a successful outcome.

What's your equivalent of Phelps' monstrous arm span and double-jointed ankles? In public markets in whic...

August 10, 2016

Stuart Fowler

They knew it could happen but they didn’t believe it would. Their income is likely to be cut by 7.5% says a letter from a Government department, just as a severe drop in sterling threatens to raise their outgoings. An emergency budget is called for. But some of the eas...

August 9, 2016

Stuart Fowler

In a letter published by the FT (8th August) I explain the active management problem from the client's perspective.

The letter was prompted by one (4th August) from Charles Plowden, A pity to deny the next generation exposure to active fund management.  Charles in joint...

August 9, 2016

Stuart Fowler

It’s 2023, just 7 years away. It’s exceptionally close. It's a measure of the QE-induced equity risk premium.  It matters to valuation, asset allocation and funding.

One of the outputs of our modelling of horizon-specific real equity returns is a number we call the...

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