• Stuart Fowler

More grounds for scepticism about computer models of climate change

My first post on ‘the science’ of climate variance was very sceptical. No scientist, I do have experience of financial data analysis and the modeling of financial systems. Here is an interesting video from a group of Canadian sceptics, who call themselves Friends of Science. On theirhome page are links to other scientific groups. I was particularly struck by this paper recording the failure of past attempts to model climate variance: out of sample observations for the past 19 years have failed to validate the predictions. I doubt the scientists were surprised: this a hugely complex and little-understood system to make hypotheses about. In finance, we wouldn’t even attempt it. There seem to be a lot of non-scientists (the IPCC included) who are eager to attribute greater certainty than is plausible. Do they have an agenda? Or has a popular delusion developed its own momentum (a familiar feature of financial markets)?

Temporarily high prices necessarily reduce the lease length (and vice versa) but if the market was more flexible lease lengths could at least vary to help clear demand.

There are many reasons why the actual legal and institutional frameworks may prevent this simple theoretical model working in practice. The challenge to others is to consider why this has to be the case.

Of course, the economic assumptions I have made may also be wrong. I would like to see comments that address both.

#climate #models


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