Our analysis of the politics and economics of the 2009 Spring Budget
The analysis focuses on those budget measures most relevant to our clients or most important for financial markets generally:
The Treasury’s unrealistic economic forecasts, their projections for public borrowing and the implications for the chance of a funding and/or sterling crisis
We join the debate on the shape of the recession: the Government has to hope for a V-shaped recovery but adjusting to excessive household and corporate debt looks more like a bath than a V or even a U
The economic argument for a 50% top rate of tax is dodgy but what about the politics: is reviving class war politics really a clever strategy in a challenging economy?
We look at the economics and maths of the ‘pension contract’ between different generations of taxpayers to see whether it has survived the changes in the last two tax-raising budgets.